Scientists Aim to Predict Earthquakes Months or Years Out, Not Days Before
Graphic from the Washington Post
The deadly earthquake in Chile last week killed at least 700 people and displaced 2 million. A prediction of the event would’ve been invaluable, but while seismologists know where earthquakes are likely to occur, they can’t pinpoint exactly when and where they’ll happen.
"We don’t have any good way to predict earthquakes,” Jim Dieterich, a geophysicist at the University of California, Riverside and chair of the USGS National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, told me after the 2008 earthquake in China’s Sichuan province. “In terms of short-term warning—from a few days or weeks—with high reliability, we’re just not there at this point."
There have been some successful predictions. Perhaps the most famous was in 1975, when, in response to fluctuating groundwater levels and bizarre animal behavior, Chinese officials evacuated a town hours before a 7.3-magnitude quake hit. Still, most scientists chalk that prediction, and others, up to luck.
Here’s more on the subject from an article in Plenty:
Instead of trying to predict earthquakes, in recent years geologists have turned their attention to forecasting them. Similar to a weather forecaster estimating a 40 percent chance of rain, scientists assess geological conditions and calculate the probabilities that quakes of certain sizes will occur during specific time periods in a given area. For example, a 2008 USGS study found that the chance of one or more 6.7 magnitude earthquakes hitting California in the next 30 years is greater than 99 percent. The information might not be helpful for, say, evacuating a city, but it can help shape emergency planning and other measures.
When an earthquake occurs, a fault, or crack in the Earth’s crust, ruptures, radiating seismic waves, like ripples from a stone tossed into a lake, causing damage as they pass through the ground.
Scientists develop forecasts by monitoring the motion of faults and gathering information on past earthquakes to figure out how regularly major ones take place.
But it’s not an exact science. Given the history of California’s Southern San Andreas Fault, you’d expect a major earthquake every 100 years, says Mary Lou Zoback, a geophysicist and vice president of earthquake risk applications at Risk Management Solutions, a company that specializes in catastrophe models for the insurance industry. “It’s been 300 years since the last big one there, so we give it a really high likelihood of going in the next 30 years."
Zoback was part of a team that monitored a segment of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, in central California, which seemed likely to rupture. Earlier in the century, quakes of about a 6.0 magnitude had occurred regularly, and researchers set up instruments to capture any activity before the next earthquake, which they expected to hit in the late 1980s. The quake didn’t happen until 2004, but all of the equipment was still in place to record the event.
“We had so many instruments, and there was not a single precursor. It just wasn’t there,” says Zoback. “It was really the nail in the coffin for deterministic predictions."
Still, one kind of prediction is possible—it involves a time scale of seconds. Because seismic waves propagate at a couple of miles per second, if a city is 100 miles away from a big fault, sensors could pick up the movement and give a 10-second warning. Japan’s early warning system stops trains, and may give people a few seconds to clear out of elevators and take cover.
“California is another candidate for a system like that,” says Bruce Shaw, a physicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “It’s not like we could never have any warning, it just might not be the warning that people have in mind."
And scientists haven’t given up on short-term forecasts. When it comes to aftershocks—smaller earthquakes triggered by a major quake—USGS has devised a 24-hour forecast map for California. And some researchers are working to build models that deal in months, instead of decades.
Testing these systems is challenging because few large earthquakes occur, compared to small quakes. Also, models are often criticized because they can be tweaked to make them appear more accurate than they are. But a new project may help change that. Last September, the Southern California Earthquake Center launched the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, an international collaboration that will set standards for forecasting experiments, conduct experiments around the world, and evaluate the findings.
“It’s really exciting,” says Zoback. “Independent scientists who have no stake in the models will run them. For the first time, we can have objective tests, though it may take five to ten years before we see any results."
Read the rest of the article here.
To report an earthquake, or see where tremors have occurred most recently, visit the USGS National Earthquake Prediction Center.
Strong earthquakes may weaken distant fault lines
- Will Alaska and California be next in the chain of Massive Quakes around the Ring of Fire?... Strong earthquakes may weaken distant fault lines (Reuters, Sep 30,2009)... National Geographic (November 19, 2008): "High-energy electrons captured over Antarctica could reveal the presence of a nearby but MYSTERIOUS ASTROPHYSICAL OBJECT that's bombarding Earth with cosmic rays, researchers say":
http://cristiannegureanu.blogspot.com/2009/10/major-quakes-and-planet-x-...
NEIC, Earthquake Prediction, and Citizen Science
Hi Alisa,
Nice article on Earthquake forecasting/prediction---Thanks. I'm in the rather unique position of being the President of Evergreen (Colorado) Audubon, and a Seismologist at the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) here, which in nearby Golden, CO.
For clarification, Jim Dieterich is chair of the USGS National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), not the National Earthquake Prediction Center (no such thing). You might have confused the NEIC with the NEPEC, which is quite understandable.
Of further coincidence, I created "Did You Feel It" (DYFI), which you link to under "USGS National Earthquake Prediction Center". DYFI is a citizen-science tool I developed to collect post-earthquake data via the internet users, not unlike the Great Backyard Bird Count, the Xmas Bird Count, or Project Feeder Watch. Let me know if you want to talk, either Birds or Earthquakes!
Regards, David
Alisa Opar's "Scientists Aim
Alisa Opar's "Scientists Aim to Predict Earthquakes Months or Years Out, Not Days Before" is very interesting as well as informative. Thanks Alisa for putting up such a nice piece of work. Though it is impossible to predict earthquakes some days before, for the time being, it is heartening to learn that a lot of activities are going on in this regard and our scientific class is not going to give in to the same. As where there is a will there is a way, we can definitely hope for the better. When every thing else like weather etc. are predicted objectively, why can't this also be predicted. Only the breakthrough is needed in the direction."
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It is true that it is
It is true that it is impossible to predict earthquakes. But scientific studies can throw the reasons for and possibilities of them. Looking at the progress the science has made, it seems quite possible to predict earthquakes some sufficient time before their occurrence. Our scientific class is working hard in this regard and we must hope for the better when our scientists will be able to study clearly different layers of the earth and find out the fault areas and predict accordingly.jack lalanne power juicer pro
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I think this has to be the
I think this has to be the hardest thing to do. It is about impossible to predict earthquakes. I wish they could. indiana accutane attorneys
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“Independent scientists
“Independent scientists who have no stake in the models will run them. For the first time, we can have objective tests, though it may take five to ten years before we see any results." It is above board that human knowledge is limited to predict earthquakes objectively before it occurs. Let us fall back upon the scriptures as Mar 13:8 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these are the beginnings of sorrows. Thanks. Laguna Beach Real Estate
I know scientists have been
I know scientists have been working on this for a long time. I think this is the hardest thing to predict. If they could predict earthquake this far out would be so amazing. This would definitely save a lot of lives.
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Mat 24:7 For nation shall
Mat 24:7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places. It is an interesting discussion. Though we all know for sure that it is not possible to predict earthquakes, however, it interests us a while to imagine that one day our scientists would be able to predict them. Thanks. legend plates
As if there is a will there
As if there is a will there is a way, we can certainly hope for the best. When all else as the weather, etc are within a goal, why can not also be predicted. Only the breakthrough that is needed in the final.
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really loved your article. It looks like you've put a lot of effort into your article & the human race need a lot more of these on the Internet these days. I do not real have a large deal to say in retort, I just wanted to comment to tell well done. great post. i never thought of that.
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If the scientist can predict earthquakes one day, it will reduce the damage. It will be the happiest thing in the world. employment |job listings|memory foam mattress
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This documentary is really nice. But some aspects need to be changed. The idea is good and well directed.I think this support give us know more about when earthquake occur? From dog harness
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Orey is among thousands of
Orey is among thousands of people seriously looking for portents of seismic activity in other natural phenomena, ranging from magnetic disturbances and phases of the moon to animal behavior and the premonitions of "earthquake sensitives." The seekers include Bakersfield Attorneys, free-lance geologists and entrepreneurs as well as scientists from Russia, China and even NASA — but not the U.S. Geological Survey.
Maybe some good can come out
Maybe some good can come out of this.Perhaps this will open the door to suing astrologers.
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Can you imagine the impact
Can you imagine the impact this would have on society? We would have been able to prevent all of the thousands of deaths with the most recent earthquakes. I've always wondered why and how we can't tell that the plates below us are going to eventually colide. Shouldn't there be some type of math formula that uses the gravitational pull of the earth? Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about (it's not as simple of a subject as is purity rings) so I don't know much about this. What I do know, is that this type of technology would save millions of lives. There has to be someway to predict these like we predict the weather.
Nice article, thanks for
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Good to know that this topic is being covered also in this web site.
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The predictions of
The predictions of earthquakes and long-term forecasts are given in good faith and with due care, but the author does not accept responsibility for fashion club , either directly, indirectly or implicitly. Any person or organization that uses these earthquake predictions or forecasts for any purpose do so at your own risk.
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These years there so many
These years there so many earthquakes happen everywhere, it gives us long term trauma and stress. Those who live in earthquake areas have become paranoid of having another earthquake at any time. Any warning systems didnt work when the disaster actually came, and therefore many people died. This plan is really needed, so that we can prohibit numbers of damage.
In the six months leading up
In the six months leading up to the earthquake, a series of smaller seismic movements and tremors were recorded nearby, including a magnitude-4.0 earthquake on March 30. On March 31, six days before the large earthquake struck, Italy’s Civil Protection Agency held a meeting with the Major Risks Committee - composed of the six scientists - to assess the risk of web hosting blog. At that time, the committee concluded that there was "no reason to suppose a sequence of small earthquakes could be the prelude to a strong event" and that “a major earthquake in the area is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Although the scientists are
Although the scientists are unable to comment due to the investigation, an article in Nature News reported that one of the scientists, Enzo Boschi, president of the National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV) in Rome, wrote in fashion club last September that the meeting was too short and that he had not been informed about the following press conference. Only one of the seismologists from the committee, Franco Barberi, a volcanologist at the University of Roma Tre, was at the press conference.
Can you imagine the impact
Can you imagine the impact this would have on society? We would have been able to prevent all of the thousands of deaths with the most recent earthquakes. I've always wondered egipt last minute why and how we can't tell that the plates below us are going to eventually colide. Shouldn't there be some type of math formula that uses the gravitational pull of the earth?
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Of further coincidence, I
Of further coincidence, I created "Did You Feel It" (DYFI), which you link to under "USGS National Earthquake Prediction Center". DYFI is a citizen-science tool I developed to collect post-earthquake data via the internet users, not unlike the Great Backyard Bird Count, the Xmas Bird Count, or Project Feeder Watch. Let me know if you want to talk, either Birds or Earthquakes!
Of further coincidence, I
Of further coincidence, I created "Did You Feel It" (DYFI), which you link to under "USGS National Earthquake Prediction Center". DYFI is a citizen-science tool I developed to collect post-earthquake data via the internet users, not unlike the Great Backyard Bird Count, the Xmas Bird Count, or Project Feeder Watch. Let me know if you want to talk, either Birds or Earthquakes!
Things like this are
Things like this are unavoidable, that is why a necessary precaution is always good if you want to be on the safe side. This is a proactol from a doctor.
If this can be possible then
If this can be possible then there are huge chances that numerous lives can be saved
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This is very hard to
This is very hard to accomplish in the near future. Chaotic environments like these are very hard to predict. Kudos to you, nonetheless, for this is a very important matter. repossessed cars for sale insider tips - repossessed cars for sale basics
IMHO Scientists have tried
IMHO Scientists have tried many different ways of predicting earthquakes, but none have been successful. On any particular fault, scientists know there will be another earthquake sometime in the future, but they have no way of telling when it will happen. Wohnung kaufen
I've always wondered egipt
I've always wondered egipt last minute why and how we can't tell that the plates below us are going to eventually 70-548 colide. Shouldn't there be some type of math formula that uses the gravitational pull of the earth?
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i first want to say your site is very informatic and knowledgeable and topic is really informatic as well so keep your effort up . Opar's "Scientists Aim to Predict Earthquakes Months or Years Out, Not Days Before" is very interesting as well as informative. Thanks Alisa for putting up such a nice piece of work. Though it is impossible to predict earthquakes some days before, for the time being, it is heartening to learn that a lot of activities are going on in this regard and our scientific class is not going to give in to the same. As where there is a will there is a way, we can definitely hope for the better. When every thing else like weather etc. are predicted objectively, why can't this also be predicted. Only the breakthrough is needed in the direction.
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Of further coincidence, I
Of further coincidence, I created "Did You Feel It" (DYFI), which you link to under "USGS National Earthquake Prediction Center". DYFI is a citizen-science tool I developed to collect post-earthquake data via the internet users, not unlike the Great Backyard Bird Count, the Xmas Bird Count, or Project Feeder Watch. Let me know if you want to talk, either Birds or Earthquakes!
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I dont think that it is
I dont think that it is possible. Earthquakes are unpredictable.
But, that is my personal opinion.
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